Analisis Model Regresi Spasial Kasus Tuberkulosis (TB) di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) dan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31315/imagi.v5i2.15604Keywords:
Tuberkolosis, regresi spasial, OLS, GWR, Sumatera UtaraAbstract
Penyakit tuberkulosis (TB) masih menjadi salah satu tantangan kesehatan masyarakat yang signifikan di Indonesia., termasuk di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Analisis yang bersifat regional penting dilakukan karena distribusi kasus TB tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor individual, tetapi juga kondisi sosial-ekonomi yang bervariasi antar-wilayah. Dalam konteks tersebut, metode Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) dan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) digunakan untuk memodelkan regresi spasial dengan melibatkan berbagai variabel. Kedua metode ini dinilai sesuai untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi jumlah kasus TB. Penelitian ini menggunakan data tahun 2021, dengan jumlah kasus TB sebagai variabel dependen, serta kepadatan penduduk, jumlah sapi ternak, jumlah fasilitas kesehatan, dan jumlah penduduk miskin sebagai variabel independen. Hasil analisis korelasi menunjukkan bahwa jumlah fasilitas kesehatan memiliki hubungan paling kuat dengan jumlah kasus TB, sedangkan variabel lain memiliki hubungan yang relatif lemah. Pemodelan OLS memberikan gambaran global dengan nilai Adjusted R² sebesar 0,754, namun tidak mampu menangkap heterogenitas spasial antarwilayah. Sebaliknya, GWR menghasilkan nilai Adjusted R² sebesar 0,848 dan nilai AICc yang lebih rendah. Hal ini menunjukkan model GWR lebih efisien dan akurat dalam pemodelan spasial studi kasus TB Sumut. Local R² dari GWR juga mengungkapkan adanya variasi spasial signifikan. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa distribusi kasus TB di Sumatera Utara dipengaruhi faktor spasial heterogen, sehingga penanggulangan TB perlu mempertimbangkan karakteristik lokal.
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