Vol. 20 No. 2 (2023): Edisi Juni 2023
General

Forecasting Performance of Double Exponential Smoothing Model and ETS Model for Predicting Crude Oil Prices

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  • Hari Prapcoyo,
  • Mohamad As'ad,
  • Sujito Sujito,
  • Sigit Setyowibowo,
  • Eni Farida
Hari Prapcoyo
Jurusan Informatika, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Yogyakarta
Bio
Mohamad As'ad
STMIK PPKIA Pradnya Paramita
Bio
Sujito Sujito
STMIK PPKIA Pradnya Paramita
Bio
Sigit Setyowibowo
STMIK PPKIA Pradnya Paramita
Bio
Eni Farida
STMIK PPKIA Pradnya Paramita
Bio
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31315/telematika.v20i2.8104

Published 2023-06-30

Keywords

  • prediksi harga minyak mentah,
  • model pemulusan eksponensial ganda,
  • ETS

How to Cite

Prapcoyo, H., As'ad, M., Sujito, S., Setyowibowo, S., & Farida, E. (2023). Forecasting Performance of Double Exponential Smoothing Model and ETS Model for Predicting Crude Oil Prices. Telematika: Jurnal Informatika Dan Teknologi Informasi, 20(2), 202–214. https://doi.org/10.31315/telematika.v20i2.8104

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to predict the price of monthly crude oil quickly and accurately by using an easy model and with easily available software.

Design/methodology/approach: This study compares the DES-Holts and ETS models to predict price of monthly crude oil.

Findings/result: The results of this study recommend the ETS(M,N,N) model to predict the price of monthly crude oil which produces an accuracy value of RMSE and MAPE of 4.385812 and 6.499007 %, respectively.

Originality/value/state of the art: This study implements the DES_Holt's and ETS models to predict price of monthly crude oil with an RMSE and MAPE forecasting accuracy that has never been done in previous studies.

 

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